70 billion euros, the amount of foreign trade deficit for the French government plans to announce Tuesday. An absolute record much higher than the previous record set in 2008.

Secretary of State for Foreign Trade, Pierre Lellouche had, in mid-January, revised down from the estimated 5 billion annual deficit, previously estimated at 75 billion. "It's huge, it's still too much, of course," he had complained at the time. "We pay several years for the erosion of our industrial base, the real issue is to reboost the French offer," Pierre Lellouche was analyzed.  

The cumulative deficit of 12 months completed end of November totaled 70.450 billion euros, very marked deterioration compared to the year 2010 (51.455 billion), according to latest figures released by Customs. The projected number of 2011 is also a significant increase on the previous record of 2008: 56.2 billion. The balance of trade in goods between France and the world was again negative starting in 2003. But, in addition to structural reasons regularly cited by the Minister and industry-related and lack of medium-sized companies, competitiveness in cost, capacity to innovate enough, economists emphasize the role of energy bill.

It helped itself to some 60 billion deficit last year, said Christophe Blot, of the French Observatory of Economic Conditions (OFCE). "It is clear that energy has had a very negative impact", with a 39% increase in annual average oil prices, said Alberto Balboni for his part, the analyst firm Xerfi. Note also the slowdown in trading partner of France, he notes. However, after excluding these two factors of energy and economic crisis, there is on "long-term non-energy deficit that is growing since the early 2000s," he says.

Small increase in French exports

There is a "structural trend of the industry side to record deficits, which is associated with deindustrialization," added Balboni. The year 2011 is a case, all sectors of industry have led to a widening deficit, "says he. Areas already in deficit, including automotive and textile industries, have increased their negative balance and others "who are a little florets of French foreign trade as the aerospace industry but also the pharmaceutical industry saw their surpluses shrink ".

Hence the debate of the current presidential campaign in France on the lack of medium-sized companies (250 to 5000 employees) capable of launching export, innovation and competitiveness, both in its component price and non-price component, say the economists. Elements of "hard to quantify" but based primarily "on the question of whether there are resources that could find through the trade to improve our performance in terms of growth," explains Christophe Blot.

It is observed that French exports in 2011 grew less than those of Germany, but also that exports from Italy, Spain, UK and U.S.. The global market share captured by France and has deteriorated significantly since 1990 from 6.2% to 3.6%. For 2012, it is possible to expect an improvement on the side of oil prices that are on the downside, the average Brent price from 123 dollars a barrel in April to 108 in December. But the trend depreciation of the euro could partly neutralize this effect.

The Dow Jones lost 1.13% or 134.86 points at 11,770.73 points, while the Standard & Poor's 500, the reference fund managers, gave up 1.68% or 20.78 points to 1,216 , 13 points. The Nasdaq Composite fell 1.96% or 51.62 points to 2587.99 points.

There was no very obvious trigger for this downturn.

The Italian government said Wednesday in a statement the convening of an extraordinary cabinet meeting Wednesday to 20h to adopt anti-crisis measures before the G20 summit on Thursday. "The cabinet is convened today at 20h," said the presidency in a news brief in giving details of the proposed measures.

The Minister of Transport and Infrastructure, Matteoli, said the Cabinet would adopt a decree containing 'urgent measures' among those promised last week by the prime minister Silvio Berlusconi to its European partners.Berlusconi insists on arriving Thursday at the G20 in Cannes with a first set of measures to boost growth and reduce the huge debt of 1.900 billion euro (about 120% of GDP), to bring it to the immune to the contagion of debt crisis.

According to Italian media, the measures envisaged by the Government on such disposals of public assets, reforming the labor market, a recovery plan South disadvantage, infrastructure, liberalization of professions or simplified administration. But other measures "shock" would not be excluded as a small wealth tax or a tax point of current accounts.

The top of the eurozone, which ended in the night between Wednesday and Thursday led to a series of measures to resolve the crisis, including the deletion of 50% of the Greek debt to private creditors and the strengthening of the Fund stability in the euro area.Here are the details of decisions taken by all European leaders.

The discount of the Greek debt to 50%

Banks and private equity funds that hold Greek debt have agreed to voluntarily relinquish 50% of their claims on the national debt by 2020: specifically, from January 2012, they will exchange their debt obligations Greek against others whose value will be halved. This represents a deletion of 100 billion euros of Greek debt, currently at 350 billion euros. Fund stability in the euro area (EFSF) will bring to these private creditors 30 billion euros in guarantees on these new claims.Among the measures to strengthen fiscal discipline common EU monetary figure "the adoption by each Member State of rules on passing a balanced budget the Stability and Growth in the legislation, preferably at the constitutional level or equivalent end of 2012, "the statement said.

Highs in the euro area twice a year

Highs in the euro area will be held twice a year. They will be chaired, at least initially, by the President of the EU, the Belgian Herman Van Rompuy. A change in the EU treaty is considered.

David Riley has also held that a creditor of last resort credible was necessary to Rome and Madrid, stressing that the European Central Bank (ECB) should play this role.

"If we end up with a solution for Greece involving more impairment than those defined in July, it will be a roadmap for banks (…) and we will have a credible creditor of last resort for Spain and Italy, "he said at a conference in Brussels bond.

"The EFSF (…) is currently too small.There is an institution, the European Central Bank (…) (…) and I would suggest that the ECB this role (…) in the same way that we expect such a function from the Bank of England (BoE), the Federal Reserve or the Bank of Japan (BoJ). "

An EU summit in Brussels Sunday is expected to discuss how to maximize the firepower of the fund. At the request of Paris and Berlin, an additional peak in the euro area will be held next Wednesday, including agreement on this question, one of the elements expected by the market to combat the crisis.

Europe is the threshold of a decisive week that will culminate with a summit of its leaders on October 23, where they plan to give a blow to a debt crisis that has lasted almost two years and threatens their common currency but also the global economy.Following a meeting Saturday in Paris with his G20 counterparts, the French Minister of Finance Baroin promised the rest of the world, worried about a financial tsunami, the Europeans would make October 23 an answer "decisive "to the debt crisis, both" comprehensive and lasting. "

Since the beginning of the turmoil in late 2009 in Greece, the fire has continued to spread in the euro area. Often divided on how to proceed, European leaders have most often plug the holes that never make a convincing answer. After multiple missed appointments – the decisions taken at a previous summit on July 21 are still not in place – this time they intend to operate a turning point.

The idea is to present a set of steps to the top of the top twenty rich and emerging countries (G20) on 3 and 4 November in Cannes.Objectives: stopgap stabilizing Greece will receive a loan vital to 8 billion euros, strengthening the firewall finance in the euro area to prevent Spain and Italy will follow suit – which would doom the euro – bail out weak banks and improve governance of the monetary union.

The Europeans plan contains "appropriate elements" and "encouraging things," Saturday welcomed the U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, who with President Barack Obama has stepped up pressure in recent weeks. Why Europe must decide on several issues.Prior to the summit of 23 October, preparatory meetings of finance ministers are scheduled Friday and Saturday as the task is immense.

What discount on Greek debt?

Among the key issues: the percentage of Greek debt that creditors will have to give up the degree of recapitalization of banks to absorb the shock or the arrangements to enhance the firepower of the Relief Fund of the euro (EFSF) via a "leverage". In detail, the figure of 21% "haircut" for holders of Greek debt, decided July 21, is now obsolete and considered the percentage may reach up to 50% now, according to a European government. Problem: you have to reach a negotiated solution with the banks at present are praying.To address the risk of default Greek, European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso, also announced he would propose a recapitalization of banks so that their own funds "hard" reach 9%.

And the leader of the Eurogroup Jean-Claude Juncker even considered to force the banks that do not play the game to contribute more to the debt relief of Athens. It will also expand the capacity of intervention of the EFSF, beyond what was already decided in July and approved this week by Slovakia, the last country the green light was still pending. The option to leverage its efforts by making it grants not loans, but guarantees to holders of debt seems fragile hold the rope, according to European sources.An alternative, favored by France, which would be transformed into the EFSF bank to borrow from the European Central Bank, seems ruled out because it violates the EU treaty.

The euro crisis has also reinforced the urgency of a paradoxically greater integration of driving the euro area. The subject will also be discussed at the summit. Under the anxious eyes of the European Commission which fears being marginalized, Paris and Berlin want to give more backbone in the Monetary Union with peaks at least twice a year of its leaders under the leadership of Herman Van Rompuy, which chairs have those of any European Union.It is also about strengthening fiscal discipline, creating a position of "super-commissioner" European dedicated to this task, or to place trust countries formal budgetary difficulty or to allow the European Court of Justice to punish States too lax.

Brussels wants farmers to "go green". The European Commission proposed on Wednesday to condition part of the aid to respect for the environment, and to the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) fairer by capping subsidies, despite the reluctance of the industry. "A redefinition of the CAP is necessary," the MEPs tried before the Commissioner of Agriculture, the Romanian Ciolos, presenting the details of its proposals to reform the system of EU agricultural subsidies from 2014.

He has proposed to link some of the aid paid to some 12 million European operations "to a few simple agricultural practices whose effects are well established" crop diversification, maintenance of permanent pasture, and conservation of biodiversity reservoirs or landscape elements of at least 7% of arable land. The reform also aims to shift to a "sustainable production practices," while Europe has "for years" led the farmers "on the way to a stress-free productivity," noted Ciolos.

Another key measure for the capping of aid. These become progressively reduced from 150,000 euros per year per firm and will not exceed 300,000 euros.Germany, or the UK – where farms reap the crown of England every year hundreds of thousands of dollars – are opposed to the cap, brandishing the risk of fragmentation of their large holdings. These are always more numerous in Europe in seven years, the number of farms decreased by 20% for a reduction of only 2% of the agricultural area, is the statistical office Eurostat.

France is the first bénéficière envelopes States

Criticized by the European Court of Auditors to have paid aids golf clubs or airports, the CAP will also be reserved for the future to "active farmers".Calling for a change of "paradigm", Ciolos also called for a more equitable CAP with the introduction of a single payment per hectare for each State and each region, which should balance out subsidies to benefit of extensive agriculture.

However, it is still far from a fair rebalancing envelopes allocated to each state. France continues to be the first beneficiary and lose relatively little, while the countries of Eastern Europe continue to receive bonuses per hectare well below the European average. In Brussels, a Baltic hundred farmers have agreed to meet Wednesday to protest against this compromise deemed disadvantageous to farmers Baltic. "Politics, more at European level is the art of the possible equilibria," agreed Ciolos."The most important is to stimulate a movement in the right direction," he said, promising to continue this trend toward more balance beyond 2020.

The proposals of the Commissioner Ciolos will now be subject to approval by MEPs and the 27 Member States, and negotiations promise to be difficult. For the main organization of farmers in Europe, Copa-Cogeca, the principle of ecological fallows is "illogical, while global food demand is expected to increase 70% by 2050." Greening is also criticized by the German Green Häusling Martin, for whom he does not go far enough, or the French Socialist Stéphane Le Foll, who lampooned the "weaknesses" of agri-environmental measures proposed, such as fallow "too rigid" .

Richard Sulik, 43, head of the unicameral Parliament of Slovakia and Freedom and Solidarity Party ("SAS"), is an ultra-liberal economist torpedo approval Bratislava strengthening the European Relief Fund (EFSF). According to the founder of the party in 2009 SaS, the EFSF is "a road to socialism."

In 2010, the party enters with great fanfare the Government, through its platform advocating fiscal consolidation, privatization, the legalization of same-sex couples and the decriminalization of marijuana. At the initiative of the man with glasses, bald and of medium size, a referendum is held three months after the election, focusing on the immunity of deputies, the privileges of politicians and use by these luxury cars.

But future historians may recall in particular the month of October 2011, when Richard Sulik has torpedoed the European security, to help indebted countries in the euro area. "We are witnessing an attempt to resolve the debt crisis with even more debt.It's as if someone was trying to extinguish a fire with a fan, "he recently told AFP.

The Slovaks are too poor to pay for the mistakes of others, he repeats often. The future "executioner" of the European bailout fund was born January 12, 1968 in Bratislava, in a family that emigrated twelve years later in West Germany at the time. Passion for economics and physics, he completed his university studies in Munich. In 1991, two years after the "Velvet Revolution" anti-communism in the former Czechoslovakia split amicably in the Czech Republic and Slovakia in 1993, he returned to his homeland to go into business.

For ten years he led his company FaxCOPY.In 2003 he graduated from the Economic University in Bratislava, before appearing shortly after one of the authors of a radical tax reform introducing a flat tax (flat tax) of 19%. In 2005-06, he was advisor to the Minister of Labour and Social Affairs, a Christian Democrat named Iveta Radicova, future Prime Minister. In 2006-07, he served as advisor to the then finance minister, Jan POČIATEK.

Unconditional cigars, Richard Sulik is often pilloried for his little formal clothing. Even as head of Parliament, it is often the tie. Richard Sulik, who speaks German and English, is divorced. He is the father of four children with his former wife and her current companion.

The pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 index yielded 2.68 and the Eurostoxx 50 was unscrewed from 2.21%. In Paris the CAC 40 ended down 2.61% to 2850.55 points.

The London Stock Exchange fell 2.58%, that of 2.98% in Frankfurt and Milan instead of 2.72%.

"The markets are nervous because a lot of political uncertainty.As long as no solution has been found to the situation in Greece, the context will remain difficult, "Judge Klaus Wiener, chief economist of Generali Investments.

Cyclical stocks were particularly hard hit, always burdened by concerns about a possible relapse into recession. The European automotive sector dropped 6.21%, largest decline sector, and those of construction and banks have lost both about 4%.

In addition, the banking sector is dragged down by Dexia, which lost up to 38% in session to finish down by 22.46%.France and Belgium flew to the rescue of the Franco-Belgian bank Tuesday while script for a dismantling of the facility, weakened by the financial crisis and in particular its exposure to Greece, is gaining credibility.

According to the median forecast of 27 analysts and fund managers polled by Reuters in a week, the Cac 40 should be at 3200 points by the end of December, up 6.8% from its closing level of 2995 points Wednesday.

If this forecast proves accurate, the CAC 40 will be charged with a loss of about 16% for the year 2011.

At the end of June 2012, analysts see the CAC at 3450 points, an increase of over 15% at the end of Wednesday.

Both projections are down sharply compared to the last survey conducted in late JuneWhile analysts expected a CAC at 4160 points at the end of the year and 4,350 points in mid-2012, before a series of bad economic indicators and renewed concerns about the Greek debt will make the markets fall .

"We believe that Greece will experience one eventually default 'ordered' but if policymakers are able to reduce the risk of contagion," said Patrick Moonen, responsible for investment strategy at ING Investment Management. For its part, sees the CAC 40 to 3100 points at the end of 2011 and 3200 points in mid-2012.

"To achieve this, banks will be recapitalized.And the European Central Bank will continue to buy the debt device. "

The CAC 40 has lost more than 20% since the beginning of the year, driven lower mostly by the questions of the market exposure of banks BNP Paribas, Credit Agricole and Societe Generale in the Greek and Italian sovereign debt .

The three banks have lost about two thirds of their market capitalization since mid-February, investors feared the damage that would cause a default Greek. The difficulties in obtaining bank financing in dollars on a tight money market are also the disadvantage of the Exchange.

Because of the rout in stock markets, the valuation ratios of the three major banks are found very low.Their price / net assets is approximately 0.3 and 4 of the PER, is one of the lowest in Europe.

Thus, it is not surprising that analysts and fund managers surveyed expect to see the bank at the forefront of the stock market rebound expected.

The rebound, however, should be limited by a darkening economic outlook.

"The possibility of resolving the crisis of sovereign debt in Europe reminds us that European indices could rebound, driven by banking stocks and insurance.However, the global economic slowdown is already evident in the macro, and distribution of credit will slow because of the willingness of banks to improve their balance sheet, which will impact more global growth and therefore limit the initial bounce, " Joffrey Ouafqa comments, Convictions manager at Asset Management.

He sees the CAC 40 to 3200 points by the end of the year and 3,300 points in mid-2012.