70 billion euros, the amount of foreign trade deficit for the French government plans to announce Tuesday. An absolute record much higher than the previous record set in 2008.

Secretary of State for Foreign Trade, Pierre Lellouche had, in mid-January, revised down from the estimated 5 billion annual deficit, previously estimated at 75 billion. "It's huge, it's still too much, of course," he had complained at the time. "We pay several years for the erosion of our industrial base, the real issue is to reboost the French offer," Pierre Lellouche was analyzed.  

The cumulative deficit of 12 months completed end of November totaled 70.450 billion euros, very marked deterioration compared to the year 2010 (51.455 billion), according to latest figures released by Customs. The projected number of 2011 is also a significant increase on the previous record of 2008: 56.2 billion. The balance of trade in goods between France and the world was again negative starting in 2003. But, in addition to structural reasons regularly cited by the Minister and industry-related and lack of medium-sized companies, competitiveness in cost, capacity to innovate enough, economists emphasize the role of energy bill.

It helped itself to some 60 billion deficit last year, said Christophe Blot, of the French Observatory of Economic Conditions (OFCE). "It is clear that energy has had a very negative impact", with a 39% increase in annual average oil prices, said Alberto Balboni for his part, the analyst firm Xerfi. Note also the slowdown in trading partner of France, he notes. However, after excluding these two factors of energy and economic crisis, there is on "long-term non-energy deficit that is growing since the early 2000s," he says.

Small increase in French exports

There is a "structural trend of the industry side to record deficits, which is associated with deindustrialization," added Balboni. The year 2011 is a case, all sectors of industry have led to a widening deficit, "says he. Areas already in deficit, including automotive and textile industries, have increased their negative balance and others "who are a little florets of French foreign trade as the aerospace industry but also the pharmaceutical industry saw their surpluses shrink ".

Hence the debate of the current presidential campaign in France on the lack of medium-sized companies (250 to 5000 employees) capable of launching export, innovation and competitiveness, both in its component price and non-price component, say the economists. Elements of "hard to quantify" but based primarily "on the question of whether there are resources that could find through the trade to improve our performance in terms of growth," explains Christophe Blot.

It is observed that French exports in 2011 grew less than those of Germany, but also that exports from Italy, Spain, UK and U.S.. The global market share captured by France and has deteriorated significantly since 1990 from 6.2% to 3.6%. For 2012, it is possible to expect an improvement on the side of oil prices that are on the downside, the average Brent price from 123 dollars a barrel in April to 108 in December. But the trend depreciation of the euro could partly neutralize this effect.

The euro area has suddenly plunged into turmoil Tuesday after the surprise announcement of a referendum in Greece, Prime Minister George Papandreou playing his all facing strong internal opposition, the risk of default in payment of his country .

Around 1:45 p.m., here is what the state of European stock: -5.07% for the CAC 40 in Paris, -5.32% in Frankfurt, -6.26% in Milan, -3.09% in London .. . To monitor in real time here.

After the lull that had received the results of the EU summit last Thursday, which gave birth to a debt reduction plan for Greece, the announcement of a referendum in Greece has "taken the market by surprise and shocked," said the broker IG Markets in Paris.

According to a government source, the referendum, the first organized in the country since the one that abolished the monarchy in 1974, will speak "about January."Papandreou had raised vertiginieusement setting, wondering if he had at least warned its major counterparts, first and foremost the German chancellor Angela Merkel.

In Paris, the French presidency announced that the head of state Nicolas Sarkozy would call Merkel in mid-day.

For political scientist Nikolapopoulos Ilias, this gamble is a decision potentially "suicidal for the country," jeopardizing the delicate negotiations that began after the Brussels agreement with the holders of private debt to Greek they erase nearly a third cheaper for them a loss of 50%.

"It adds to the uncertainty, which is never good for markets, wondering if all the scaffolding assembled by the euro area may collapse if 'no' to the referendum," commented echoing Michalis Matsourakis, chief economist at the Greek bank Alpha Bank.

He said Mr.

The top of the eurozone, which ended in the night between Wednesday and Thursday led to a series of measures to resolve the crisis, including the deletion of 50% of the Greek debt to private creditors and the strengthening of the Fund stability in the euro area.Here are the details of decisions taken by all European leaders.

The discount of the Greek debt to 50%

Banks and private equity funds that hold Greek debt have agreed to voluntarily relinquish 50% of their claims on the national debt by 2020: specifically, from January 2012, they will exchange their debt obligations Greek against others whose value will be halved. This represents a deletion of 100 billion euros of Greek debt, currently at 350 billion euros. Fund stability in the euro area (EFSF) will bring to these private creditors 30 billion euros in guarantees on these new claims.Among the measures to strengthen fiscal discipline common EU monetary figure "the adoption by each Member State of rules on passing a balanced budget the Stability and Growth in the legislation, preferably at the constitutional level or equivalent end of 2012, "the statement said.

Highs in the euro area twice a year

Highs in the euro area will be held twice a year. They will be chaired, at least initially, by the President of the EU, the Belgian Herman Van Rompuy. A change in the EU treaty is considered.

The turnover of the world's number one industry, owner of Louis Vuitton leather goods, Hennessy cognac and Christian Dior perfumes, rose 17.6% in the third quarter to 6.01 billion euros, higher than the consensus of analysts polled by Reuters (5.8 billion).

Organic growth for its part maintained at 15%, as in the first half, while analysts expected a slowdown to 12.5% ​​and the comparison base last year was already high (14%) .

"The numbers are good, they show that the industry does not undergo the expected slowdown," said one analyst who requested anonymity.

After last week Burberry, LVMH confirms the strength of the luxury sector the slowdown in mature economies, driven by tourism flows in Europe and an application that does not weaken in the high-end department stores in the United States.

At the Paris Stock Exchange, after opening slightly down, the title LVMH sells 1.8% to 111.40 euros by 10:05, in a market down 1.7%.

Having been overtaken by fears of recession and slowdown in the Chinese engine, the values ​​of luxury have suffered a significant stock market correction in late September, before regaining lost ground, with the general recovery of the markets.

To date, the limit value share of 7.8% since the beginning of the year, compared with a decrease of 15% for its rival Swiss Richemont, but increases of 12.3% for Burberry or 16 % for Tiffany.

DECELERATION IN WINES AND SPIRITS

On the sidelines of Paris Fashion Week ready-to-wear at the beginning of the month, industry leaders have also said they see no signs of slowing demand in the third quarter.

Still, many analysts expect a slowdown in the global luxury goods market in 2012 and have already revised down their forecasts for growth for luxury groups for next year.

"Sales growth continues to be strong in Asia, Europe and the United States, while Japan sees a return to growth," said LVMH in a statement.

With these figures, the group's "confidence" for the full year 2011, without elaborating on its expectations for sales season, a crucial period for the sector.

He also indicated it will pursue a policy of targeted geographic expansion "in the most promising markets."

The fashion and leather goods division saw its organic growth accelerated slightly to 15% over nine months after 14% in the first half, driven by Louis Vuitton nugget.The latter mark, the main profit center of the group, could have exceeded 15% growth estimated by some analysts (LVMH never disclose the figures of Louis Vuitton).

The market is waiting for clarification during a conference call scheduled for 3:00 p.m. on any price increases that could be spent by the end of the year in the leather.

In contrast, sales of wines and spirits have had their organic growth decelerated to 11% over nine months and investors await guidance on inventory levels of distributors.

Sales of selective distribution (DFS, Sephora) have accelerated the pace with organic growth of 19%, while rate was slightly compacted in perfumes and cosmetics at 10%. Recent statements by Clarins to leave Reuters anticipate difficult year 2012 in Europe.

In watches and jewelry, which now include Italian Bulgari, growth remains very strong, like the Swiss watch exports to 26%.

The numbers of PPR, which owns Gucci, are expected on October 26 and those of Hermes (which LVMH owns 21.4%) on November 4.

Note of Italy fell from AA-to A + and that of Spain AA + to AA-.The prospect of the two countries is negative, suggesting that further downgrades are possible.

Italy and Spain are directly affected by the crisis in the euro area in that they depend on the European Central Bank (ECB) to place their bonds and avoiding the yields demanded reach unmanageable proportions.

"A comprehensive and credible solution to the crisis in the euro area is politically and technically difficult and will take time to implement," said Fitch.

Italy has recently been downgraded by Moody's and Standard & Poor's.Market sentiment towards the country was affected by the hesitant reaction of the government, initially, to higher yields.

The euro fell to the announcement of downgrades, as Wall Street.Analysts say, however, that the decision on Italy was entirely predictable.

"The reasons for Fitch are not so different from the other two agencies, I do not think the markets will react a lot," said Alessandro Tentori (BNP Paribas).

Paolo Pizzoli, an analyst at ING, sees the decision of Fitch additional pressure on the Italian government to adopt structural reforms that could boost growth, reforms that are missing in the recent austerity plan intended to balance the budget in 2013.

The Berlusconi government intends to introduce such initiatives in the month but the ruling coalition is so weakened and divided as few analysts see it join forces to give carte blanche.

In Spain, the government reduced the deficit with a series of austerity measures, but most of the country's debt is regional and autonomous regions are still practicing their own cuts.

"We respect that decision but we disagree," said a spokesman for the Spanish Ministry of Economy.

The Italian Foreign Minister Franco Frattini was much drier, arguing that "markets have little to do with Fitch, Moody's and company."

Fitch also announced Friday it was maintaining Portugal under review with negative implications, it intends to resolve status in the fourth quarter.Portugal is rated BBB-by the agency.

Regarding the latter, the European Commission said it will send a team of experts to assist the authorities to redirect funds from the EU to the economic reforms agreed with the troika (EU, International Monetary Fund, Central Bank European).

The pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 index yielded 2.68 and the Eurostoxx 50 was unscrewed from 2.21%. In Paris the CAC 40 ended down 2.61% to 2850.55 points.

The London Stock Exchange fell 2.58%, that of 2.98% in Frankfurt and Milan instead of 2.72%.

"The markets are nervous because a lot of political uncertainty.As long as no solution has been found to the situation in Greece, the context will remain difficult, "Judge Klaus Wiener, chief economist of Generali Investments.

Cyclical stocks were particularly hard hit, always burdened by concerns about a possible relapse into recession. The European automotive sector dropped 6.21%, largest decline sector, and those of construction and banks have lost both about 4%.

In addition, the banking sector is dragged down by Dexia, which lost up to 38% in session to finish down by 22.46%.France and Belgium flew to the rescue of the Franco-Belgian bank Tuesday while script for a dismantling of the facility, weakened by the financial crisis and in particular its exposure to Greece, is gaining credibility.

The 500 staff of Seattle, with the help of a trailer mechanics, have conveyed the unit to a hundred meters to a podium outside the giant factory Everett (Washington) the aircraft manufacturer.

This symbolic delivery in person shows how the structure of the aircraft is light – it promises fuel savings of 20% – but it also testifies to the difficulties that have slowed the program.

"I long to see the day when 787 populate the skies around the world," said Shinichiro Ito, CEO of ANA.The Japanese airline had originally received its first 787 in May 2008.

Hundreds of Boeing employees had learned on the eve of the ceremony to salute respectfully and choir director general of Japan, the company officially took delivery of its first Dreamliner Sunday 55.

The Everett factory is full of aircraft not yet delivered, representing a stock valued at more than $ 16 billion.

Investors are now wondering whether Boeing can meet its production goals after seven reports in addition to more than three years late.

Boeing intends to increase its production to 10 787 per month by the end of 2013, while increasing the production of the new version of 737 and preparing to produce a 767 version in-flight refueling for the Air Force.

"We will be in two (787) a month and a half by the end of the year," said Pat Shanhan, program manager of Boeing aircraft, after the ceremony.

These aircraft will come from Everett, a new site in North Charleston (South Carolina) being added later.

Boeing is 3.5 aircraft per month in the first half of 2012, then said to the press Jim Albaugh, head of Boeing's civil aviation.

The main assembly line in Everett is designed to increase production to seven aircraft per month. A second line, provisional, is ready to take three more units if necessary.The site of South Carolina assemble three aircraft per month.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel said Tuesday that it was necessary "to avoid any uncontrolled process in the euro area", referring to a bankruptcy of Greece as it is discussed with emphasis in Germany these days. "We work with all means at our disposal so that it does not happen," said Merkel in a radio interview Inforadio. "The first priority is to avoid a default unchecked, because it would affect not only Greece, and because the risk that affects us all, or at least many other countries, is very high," at she said.

His economy minister, the Liberal Philipp Rösler, was mentioned in a press box Monday the event of a default of Athens, setting fire to European stock markets. "I think we do a great service to Greece so we speculate as little as possible but encourage Greece to meet its commitments," said Merkel indirectly criticized the release of M. Rösler, who is also vice-chancellor.

Speaking on state television, MEP Elmar Brok, from the ranks of his conservative party CDU, said that "if Greece were to fail, we should always support it financially." "And the German economy would fall into crisis, not only foreign trade but also of its financial sector," he said. The Chancellor also ruled out an out of Greece in the euro area."I said very clearly my position is that everything must be done to maintain the euro area politically intact," she repeated.

"From all I hear from Greece, the Greek government is aware of the situation and does what he must do," said the Chancellor, who had already called a few days ago to be patient in respect of Athens. "The fact that the Troika returns suggests that Greece has initiated a number of things needed," she said.

The Expert Group of the European Commission, the European Central Bank (ECB) and International Monetary Fund (IMF) to evaluate the progress of Athens in the implementation of its reform program had unexpectedly left the country September 2. He must return to Athens in the coming days.

The CAC 40 index ended down 4.73% at 2999.54 points, its lowest since July 10, 2009 (final closing)