Global growth will slow in the coming months, in the wake of China and the United States, because of austerity plans implemented in various countries, according to a Reuters poll.
However, several Asian countries, like India and South Korea, should yield better performance this year that envisioned a few months ago.
Ultimately, the 600 economists polled by Reuters and more, however, remain optimistic about the prospects for global growth, anticipating a rate of 4.2% this year and 4.0% in 2011, slightly better than the previous survey dating three months.
A consensus was also to estimate the quarter ending was stronger than many had expected, which implies that the expected slowdown in the second half will be affected even more.The horizon, however, should clear up in 2011.
"Globally, but it slows the deceleration is compared to growth rates which, in the second quarter, appear to have been more sustained than many had thought," said Dominic Wilson (Goldman Sachs).
This theory of a slowdown in growth, accompanied by a discrete inflation implies that the major central banks around the world, as the Federal Reserve or European Central Bank (ECB), whose rates are already ultra-low risk Observer status quo well into next year also.
However, many of those who have raised their rates recently, South Korea, India, Canada, Sweden and New Zealand are still likely to do so this year, perhaps several times.
HIGH UNEMPLOYMENT
Economists polled by Reuters have lowered their outlook for the U.S., ahead 3.3% annualized growth in the second quarter, against 3.5% in the June survey.
Growth will slow to 2.6% in third quarter (3% expected previously) and up to 2.7% in the fourth trimstre (2.8%).
For all of 2010, the average forecast is 3% growth against 3.2% estimated in the June survey.
In China, growth should slow gradually, Beijing withdrawing support measures implemented during the financial crisis. But it still provides 10% growth this year and 9% the next, while India would experience a steady growth also.
A similar slowdown is also expected in Japan, amid persistent deflation, at least until the end of 2011, again pushing the Bank of Japan not to raise interest rates near zero.
Signs of a slowdown in growth are evident in the latest Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) published, either in industry or in services.
The high level of unemployment remains one of the main obstacles to a resumption free.The U.S. have lost jobs in June for the first time since last year and there is little hope that the unemployment rate, currently 9.7%, falls without growth spurt.
Economists see no real changes in the U.S. unemployment rate before the end of 2011. They are more optimistic than the euro area, which is around 10%, especially as the public austerity plans have proliferated after the debt crisis of the Greek.