Developing countries and emerging countries should represent nearly 60% of world GDP in 2030, thanks to a tilting movement of wealth that the crisis has accelerated, says the OECD in a report released Wednesday.
The rapid growth of large developing countries has helped reduce poverty but also increased inequality, says the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) in its report entitled "Prospects for Global Development: the tilting of wealth" .
Decidedly optimistic, the OECD to developing countries to implement social policies and developing trade, but believes that rich countries also benefit from this structural transformation. According to the report, the industrialized countries in 2030 would represent 38% of world production, against 49% now and 62% ten years ago.Meanwhile, the contribution of non-OECD world GDP would increase to 57% against 49% today and 38% in 2000.
"The crisis has accelerated the shift of wealth in the world," said the OECD. "This realignment is not a transient phenomenon: it represents a structural change of historic importance."
Dynamism of South-South links
The report provides some examples of this structural transformation of the global economy in twenty years and dynamism of South-South linkages has caused. Between 1990 and 2008, world trade has multiplied almost fourfold, while the South-South trade have been more than ten. Developing countries currently account for about 37% of world trade, of which approximately half are of South-South flows.
In 2009, China became the largest trading partner of Brazil, India and South Africa.The Indian multinational Tata is now the second largest investor in sub-Saharan Africa. And in 2008 the developing countries had 4,200 billion of foreign reserves, more than one and half times the amount held by the rich countries.
Since the early 2000s, many emerging countries – that is to say that the average per capita equivalent to more than double that of OECD countries with high income – more than fivefold, from 12-65, while the number of poor countries has fallen by more than two (of 55-25).But if China and India posted a growth rate equivalent to three or four times the OECD average during the 2000s, a group of troubled countries and poor countries continued to experience poor performance.
"It is not enough to divide the world into North and South, developed and developing countries (…) Some developing countries are beginning to catch up with living standards in rich countries, while others try to pierce the 'glass ceiling' of middle income and still others continue to suffer from extreme poverty, "says the OECD, an organization established in 1961 to advise the industrialized countries.
Win-win
To reduce inequalities and support growth, the OECD recommends strengthening South-South trade and implement social policies in the countries that now have the means."In many cases, growth is accompanied by increasing inequality, which makes more difficult the fight against poverty. High levels of inequality may undermine growth and, ultimately, the lasting trend in travel wealth, "said the organization.
Meanwhile, the report welcomes the new global governance emerged from the crisis with the G20, which has dethroned the G7 to emerging countries had no voice. He concluded by speaking of "win-win" for emerging countries and the West.
"The net gains from increased prosperity in the developing world can benefit both rich countries than poor countries.Improving the range and quality of exports, greater technological dynamism, better opportunities for companies or expanded consumer base are all factors likely to produce welfare gains be significant for the world " ensures the OECD.