70 billion euros, the amount of foreign trade deficit for the French government plans to announce Tuesday. An absolute record much higher than the previous record set in 2008.

Secretary of State for Foreign Trade, Pierre Lellouche had, in mid-January, revised down from the estimated 5 billion annual deficit, previously estimated at 75 billion. "It's huge, it's still too much, of course," he had complained at the time. "We pay several years for the erosion of our industrial base, the real issue is to reboost the French offer," Pierre Lellouche was analyzed.  

The cumulative deficit of 12 months completed end of November totaled 70.450 billion euros, very marked deterioration compared to the year 2010 (51.455 billion), according to latest figures released by Customs. The projected number of 2011 is also a significant increase on the previous record of 2008: 56.2 billion. The balance of trade in goods between France and the world was again negative starting in 2003. But, in addition to structural reasons regularly cited by the Minister and industry-related and lack of medium-sized companies, competitiveness in cost, capacity to innovate enough, economists emphasize the role of energy bill.

It helped itself to some 60 billion deficit last year, said Christophe Blot, of the French Observatory of Economic Conditions (OFCE). "It is clear that energy has had a very negative impact", with a 39% increase in annual average oil prices, said Alberto Balboni for his part, the analyst firm Xerfi. Note also the slowdown in trading partner of France, he notes. However, after excluding these two factors of energy and economic crisis, there is on "long-term non-energy deficit that is growing since the early 2000s," he says.

Small increase in French exports

There is a "structural trend of the industry side to record deficits, which is associated with deindustrialization," added Balboni. The year 2011 is a case, all sectors of industry have led to a widening deficit, "says he. Areas already in deficit, including automotive and textile industries, have increased their negative balance and others "who are a little florets of French foreign trade as the aerospace industry but also the pharmaceutical industry saw their surpluses shrink ".

Hence the debate of the current presidential campaign in France on the lack of medium-sized companies (250 to 5000 employees) capable of launching export, innovation and competitiveness, both in its component price and non-price component, say the economists. Elements of "hard to quantify" but based primarily "on the question of whether there are resources that could find through the trade to improve our performance in terms of growth," explains Christophe Blot.

It is observed that French exports in 2011 grew less than those of Germany, but also that exports from Italy, Spain, UK and U.S.. The global market share captured by France and has deteriorated significantly since 1990 from 6.2% to 3.6%. For 2012, it is possible to expect an improvement on the side of oil prices that are on the downside, the average Brent price from 123 dollars a barrel in April to 108 in December. But the trend depreciation of the euro could partly neutralize this effect.

The Dow Jones lost 1.13% or 134.86 points at 11,770.73 points, while the Standard & Poor's 500, the reference fund managers, gave up 1.68% or 20.78 points to 1,216 , 13 points. The Nasdaq Composite fell 1.96% or 51.62 points to 2587.99 points.

There was no very obvious trigger for this downturn.

Mizuho Financial Group announced the elimination of these positions, which represent about 5% of its workforce, by March 2016 in connection with the merger of its retail banking and business.

Half the income of Mizuho Financial Group, the second Japanese bank by assets, fell by a quarter, partly due to a drop in trading revenue bond.

Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (SMFG), the third Japanese bank whose profits also fell by 25%, said it would repurchase up to 50 billion yen (476 million) of its own shares or 1.63 % of its claims.

"The profitability of their core business remains low in Japan, including disposals of investments and sales of insurance products, which remain low," he said of Mizuho and SMFG Chikako Horiuchi, an analyst at Fitch Ratings in Tokyo.

"Times are tough for their brokerage. So the question is whether they are capable or not boost their activities abroad."

The prospect of the Japanese economy is overshadowed by a strong yen and weak global demand.

"The bond purchase program dismantles market discipline without establishing a discipline policy in place," write the "Wise Men" German in a report released Wednesday.

Blurring the fiscal and monetary policies, "the ECB endangers its credibility because it may be suspected to monetize sovereign debt," they write.It previously projected 1.8% and 3% respectively.

Economic advisers plan for next year export growth of 3.2% and unemployment down to 6.9% against 7.1% in 2011.

The Italian government said Wednesday in a statement the convening of an extraordinary cabinet meeting Wednesday to 20h to adopt anti-crisis measures before the G20 summit on Thursday. "The cabinet is convened today at 20h," said the presidency in a news brief in giving details of the proposed measures.

The Minister of Transport and Infrastructure, Matteoli, said the Cabinet would adopt a decree containing 'urgent measures' among those promised last week by the prime minister Silvio Berlusconi to its European partners.Berlusconi insists on arriving Thursday at the G20 in Cannes with a first set of measures to boost growth and reduce the huge debt of 1.900 billion euro (about 120% of GDP), to bring it to the immune to the contagion of debt crisis.

According to Italian media, the measures envisaged by the Government on such disposals of public assets, reforming the labor market, a recovery plan South disadvantage, infrastructure, liberalization of professions or simplified administration. But other measures "shock" would not be excluded as a small wealth tax or a tax point of current accounts.

"There is progress," he said on his arrival in Brussels where he will hold talks with German Chancellor Angela Merkel began Sunday when the European Council considered a challenge for the future of economic and monetary union.

"By Wednesday (when a second Council, ed), we must find a solution, a structural solution, an ambitious solution, a final solution, there is no choice," he said when he arrived at the headquarters of the European Council.

Asked if he was confident in the outcome of discussions, the president replied: "Yes, otherwise I would not be here."

Brussels wants farmers to "go green". The European Commission proposed on Wednesday to condition part of the aid to respect for the environment, and to the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) fairer by capping subsidies, despite the reluctance of the industry. "A redefinition of the CAP is necessary," the MEPs tried before the Commissioner of Agriculture, the Romanian Ciolos, presenting the details of its proposals to reform the system of EU agricultural subsidies from 2014.

He has proposed to link some of the aid paid to some 12 million European operations "to a few simple agricultural practices whose effects are well established" crop diversification, maintenance of permanent pasture, and conservation of biodiversity reservoirs or landscape elements of at least 7% of arable land. The reform also aims to shift to a "sustainable production practices," while Europe has "for years" led the farmers "on the way to a stress-free productivity," noted Ciolos.

Another key measure for the capping of aid. These become progressively reduced from 150,000 euros per year per firm and will not exceed 300,000 euros.Germany, or the UK – where farms reap the crown of England every year hundreds of thousands of dollars – are opposed to the cap, brandishing the risk of fragmentation of their large holdings. These are always more numerous in Europe in seven years, the number of farms decreased by 20% for a reduction of only 2% of the agricultural area, is the statistical office Eurostat.

France is the first bénéficière envelopes States

Criticized by the European Court of Auditors to have paid aids golf clubs or airports, the CAP will also be reserved for the future to "active farmers".Calling for a change of "paradigm", Ciolos also called for a more equitable CAP with the introduction of a single payment per hectare for each State and each region, which should balance out subsidies to benefit of extensive agriculture.

However, it is still far from a fair rebalancing envelopes allocated to each state. France continues to be the first beneficiary and lose relatively little, while the countries of Eastern Europe continue to receive bonuses per hectare well below the European average. In Brussels, a Baltic hundred farmers have agreed to meet Wednesday to protest against this compromise deemed disadvantageous to farmers Baltic. "Politics, more at European level is the art of the possible equilibria," agreed Ciolos."The most important is to stimulate a movement in the right direction," he said, promising to continue this trend toward more balance beyond 2020.

The proposals of the Commissioner Ciolos will now be subject to approval by MEPs and the 27 Member States, and negotiations promise to be difficult. For the main organization of farmers in Europe, Copa-Cogeca, the principle of ecological fallows is "illogical, while global food demand is expected to increase 70% by 2050." Greening is also criticized by the German Green Häusling Martin, for whom he does not go far enough, or the French Socialist Stéphane Le Foll, who lampooned the "weaknesses" of agri-environmental measures proposed, such as fallow "too rigid" .

According to the median forecast of 27 analysts and fund managers polled by Reuters in a week, the Cac 40 should be at 3200 points by the end of December, up 6.8% from its closing level of 2995 points Wednesday.

If this forecast proves accurate, the CAC 40 will be charged with a loss of about 16% for the year 2011.

At the end of June 2012, analysts see the CAC at 3450 points, an increase of over 15% at the end of Wednesday.

Both projections are down sharply compared to the last survey conducted in late JuneWhile analysts expected a CAC at 4160 points at the end of the year and 4,350 points in mid-2012, before a series of bad economic indicators and renewed concerns about the Greek debt will make the markets fall .

"We believe that Greece will experience one eventually default 'ordered' but if policymakers are able to reduce the risk of contagion," said Patrick Moonen, responsible for investment strategy at ING Investment Management. For its part, sees the CAC 40 to 3100 points at the end of 2011 and 3200 points in mid-2012.

"To achieve this, banks will be recapitalized.And the European Central Bank will continue to buy the debt device. "

The CAC 40 has lost more than 20% since the beginning of the year, driven lower mostly by the questions of the market exposure of banks BNP Paribas, Credit Agricole and Societe Generale in the Greek and Italian sovereign debt .

The three banks have lost about two thirds of their market capitalization since mid-February, investors feared the damage that would cause a default Greek. The difficulties in obtaining bank financing in dollars on a tight money market are also the disadvantage of the Exchange.

Because of the rout in stock markets, the valuation ratios of the three major banks are found very low.Their price / net assets is approximately 0.3 and 4 of the PER, is one of the lowest in Europe.

Thus, it is not surprising that analysts and fund managers surveyed expect to see the bank at the forefront of the stock market rebound expected.

The rebound, however, should be limited by a darkening economic outlook.

"The possibility of resolving the crisis of sovereign debt in Europe reminds us that European indices could rebound, driven by banking stocks and insurance.However, the global economic slowdown is already evident in the macro, and distribution of credit will slow because of the willingness of banks to improve their balance sheet, which will impact more global growth and therefore limit the initial bounce, " Joffrey Ouafqa comments, Convictions manager at Asset Management.

He sees the CAC 40 to 3200 points by the end of the year and 3,300 points in mid-2012.

The crisis of sovereign debt continues to weigh on European shares and heckle banking stocks, particularly the French – the most exposed to Italy and Greece, two countries that capture these days the attention of market.

The CAC 40 index lost 1.62% to 2935.82 points, after rising 1.5% Tuesday in closing.

London has yielded 1.4%, 2.47% Frankfurt, Milan 1.65%.The index Pan-European Euro Stoxx 50 lost 1.96%.

European banks, including the French, have been buffeted in the red and the green at the mercy of rumors, including whether or not to recapitalize, and news about the crisis in the area.

The Stoxx European banks index ended down 1.6%.

In Paris, BNP Paribas has finally dropped 1.85% after gaining over 2% in the afternoon.Societe Generale, having also made the yoyo, ended in the red (-1.28%) as well as Credit Agricole (-2.38%).

Many professionals emphasize the link of "inbreeding" among European banks and the debt of the euro area and say that as governments will not put out a general settlement plan, financial stocks continue to suffer.

"So things are moving in all directions according to rumors," said a vendor noting the "fragility" of the market.

In this context of flight to quality, Germany awarded for the first time in its history of Bund 10 years at an average rate below 2%.

The performance of the Bund, part of the euro area, the market remained unchanged at 1.77% and that of the French OAT maturing as well, to 2.62%.

The euro gained ground and was trading late in the day around 1.3723 against the dollar around 1.3675 this morning.

In Paris, Alcatel-Lucent (0.85%) was the only value of the CAC 40 to finish in the green while cyclical as PSA (-5.70%) and Vallourec (-4.61%) suffered the largest declines in the index.

The major French banks have seen their market value melted in recent weeks, partly because of the fear of the effects of the continuing crisis of debt in the euro area.

"Our banks are strong," said Valerie Pécresse, who is also Minister of the Budget, on LCI."There is no problem or solvency or liquidity of French banks."

It found that the volatility of financial markets in this regard was "part of the irrational."

Baroin told France Info radio that "the banks did not need to be recapitalized – so no debate superfluous – and have no difficulty with access to liquidity," central bankers said on Friday that G7 in Marseille they will provide the necessary liquidity if necessary.

"We must be confident," said Baroin.

"What is happening in the markets cause them to speed up what is called (rules) Basel Committee, which is an appointment of additional obligations to have equity in relation to their balance sheets that are higher. They have announced they do. "

The exposure of French banks to Greece is 8 billion euros, while profits in the first half were $ 11 billion, said Minister of Finance.

Christian Noyer, Governor of the Banque de France and member of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank, said this week that French banks were able to "go through a severe crisis."He said that other banks had more than 200 billion of collateral deposited with the Banque de France and not used.

Senior officials, however, urge the European financial ministers of the continent to strengthen bank capital, preventing a "systemic crisis" sovereign debt affects banks and raises the specter of a new credit crisis.

In documents prepared by those responsible for the Ecofin meeting of September 16 and 17, that Reuters was able to consult, it is referred to a "risk of a vicious circle between sovereign debt, the financing banks and the negative growth ", which can cause a credit freeze.