70 billion euros, the amount of foreign trade deficit for the French government plans to announce Tuesday. An absolute record much higher than the previous record set in 2008.

Secretary of State for Foreign Trade, Pierre Lellouche had, in mid-January, revised down from the estimated 5 billion annual deficit, previously estimated at 75 billion. "It's huge, it's still too much, of course," he had complained at the time. "We pay several years for the erosion of our industrial base, the real issue is to reboost the French offer," Pierre Lellouche was analyzed.  

The cumulative deficit of 12 months completed end of November totaled 70.450 billion euros, very marked deterioration compared to the year 2010 (51.455 billion), according to latest figures released by Customs. The projected number of 2011 is also a significant increase on the previous record of 2008: 56.2 billion. The balance of trade in goods between France and the world was again negative starting in 2003. But, in addition to structural reasons regularly cited by the Minister and industry-related and lack of medium-sized companies, competitiveness in cost, capacity to innovate enough, economists emphasize the role of energy bill.

It helped itself to some 60 billion deficit last year, said Christophe Blot, of the French Observatory of Economic Conditions (OFCE). "It is clear that energy has had a very negative impact", with a 39% increase in annual average oil prices, said Alberto Balboni for his part, the analyst firm Xerfi. Note also the slowdown in trading partner of France, he notes. However, after excluding these two factors of energy and economic crisis, there is on "long-term non-energy deficit that is growing since the early 2000s," he says.

Small increase in French exports

There is a "structural trend of the industry side to record deficits, which is associated with deindustrialization," added Balboni. The year 2011 is a case, all sectors of industry have led to a widening deficit, "says he. Areas already in deficit, including automotive and textile industries, have increased their negative balance and others "who are a little florets of French foreign trade as the aerospace industry but also the pharmaceutical industry saw their surpluses shrink ".

Hence the debate of the current presidential campaign in France on the lack of medium-sized companies (250 to 5000 employees) capable of launching export, innovation and competitiveness, both in its component price and non-price component, say the economists. Elements of "hard to quantify" but based primarily "on the question of whether there are resources that could find through the trade to improve our performance in terms of growth," explains Christophe Blot.

It is observed that French exports in 2011 grew less than those of Germany, but also that exports from Italy, Spain, UK and U.S.. The global market share captured by France and has deteriorated significantly since 1990 from 6.2% to 3.6%. For 2012, it is possible to expect an improvement on the side of oil prices that are on the downside, the average Brent price from 123 dollars a barrel in April to 108 in December. But the trend depreciation of the euro could partly neutralize this effect.

However, U.S. consumers flocked to the doors of department stores, which opened earlier this Black Friday, traditionally the day that launches shopping season in the United States.

The markets were closed yesterday for Thanksgiving. The "Black Friday" is traditionally one of the least active day on Wall Street.

The S & P distribution, up much of the session ends with a loss of 0.84%.Wal-Mart has taken all the same 0.44% to 56.89 dollars.

The Dow Jones lost 25.77 points (0.23%) to 11,231.78 points. The S & P-500 loose 3.12 points (0.27%) to 1158.67 points. The Nasdaq Composite yield 18.57 points (0.75%) to 2441.51 points.

On the whole week, the Dow lost 4.8%, the S & P 4.7% and the Nasdaq 5.1%. This is the largest weekly loss in the S & P in two months.

"It's hard to say we had a session today, since there was virtually no one," said Kevin Kruzenski (KeyBanc Capital Markets).

"The market is oversold and some based on the hope the holiday season, but the general sentiment remains weak.

Mizuho Financial Group announced the elimination of these positions, which represent about 5% of its workforce, by March 2016 in connection with the merger of its retail banking and business.

Half the income of Mizuho Financial Group, the second Japanese bank by assets, fell by a quarter, partly due to a drop in trading revenue bond.

Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (SMFG), the third Japanese bank whose profits also fell by 25%, said it would repurchase up to 50 billion yen (476 million) of its own shares or 1.63 % of its claims.

"The profitability of their core business remains low in Japan, including disposals of investments and sales of insurance products, which remain low," he said of Mizuho and SMFG Chikako Horiuchi, an analyst at Fitch Ratings in Tokyo.

"Times are tough for their brokerage. So the question is whether they are capable or not boost their activities abroad."

The prospect of the Japanese economy is overshadowed by a strong yen and weak global demand.

Last week, Germany's second largest bank, owned 25% by the German federal state, however, had said she would not resort to state aid.

"The third quarter results of Commerzbank highlight the growing challenge of strengthening its equity while the growth of its main activities pick up," reads a note from Fitch.

"Fitch expects that any additional capital are the result of the state."

Commerzbank declined to comment on this post.

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The turnover of the world's number one industry, owner of Louis Vuitton leather goods, Hennessy cognac and Christian Dior perfumes, rose 17.6% in the third quarter to 6.01 billion euros, higher than the consensus of analysts polled by Reuters (5.8 billion).

Organic growth for its part maintained at 15%, as in the first half, while analysts expected a slowdown to 12.5% ​​and the comparison base last year was already high (14%) .

"The numbers are good, they show that the industry does not undergo the expected slowdown," said one analyst who requested anonymity.

After last week Burberry, LVMH confirms the strength of the luxury sector the slowdown in mature economies, driven by tourism flows in Europe and an application that does not weaken in the high-end department stores in the United States.

At the Paris Stock Exchange, after opening slightly down, the title LVMH sells 1.8% to 111.40 euros by 10:05, in a market down 1.7%.

Having been overtaken by fears of recession and slowdown in the Chinese engine, the values ​​of luxury have suffered a significant stock market correction in late September, before regaining lost ground, with the general recovery of the markets.

To date, the limit value share of 7.8% since the beginning of the year, compared with a decrease of 15% for its rival Swiss Richemont, but increases of 12.3% for Burberry or 16 % for Tiffany.

DECELERATION IN WINES AND SPIRITS

On the sidelines of Paris Fashion Week ready-to-wear at the beginning of the month, industry leaders have also said they see no signs of slowing demand in the third quarter.

Still, many analysts expect a slowdown in the global luxury goods market in 2012 and have already revised down their forecasts for growth for luxury groups for next year.

"Sales growth continues to be strong in Asia, Europe and the United States, while Japan sees a return to growth," said LVMH in a statement.

With these figures, the group's "confidence" for the full year 2011, without elaborating on its expectations for sales season, a crucial period for the sector.

He also indicated it will pursue a policy of targeted geographic expansion "in the most promising markets."

The fashion and leather goods division saw its organic growth accelerated slightly to 15% over nine months after 14% in the first half, driven by Louis Vuitton nugget.The latter mark, the main profit center of the group, could have exceeded 15% growth estimated by some analysts (LVMH never disclose the figures of Louis Vuitton).

The market is waiting for clarification during a conference call scheduled for 3:00 p.m. on any price increases that could be spent by the end of the year in the leather.

In contrast, sales of wines and spirits have had their organic growth decelerated to 11% over nine months and investors await guidance on inventory levels of distributors.

Sales of selective distribution (DFS, Sephora) have accelerated the pace with organic growth of 19%, while rate was slightly compacted in perfumes and cosmetics at 10%. Recent statements by Clarins to leave Reuters anticipate difficult year 2012 in Europe.

In watches and jewelry, which now include Italian Bulgari, growth remains very strong, like the Swiss watch exports to 26%.

The numbers of PPR, which owns Gucci, are expected on October 26 and those of Hermes (which LVMH owns 21.4%) on November 4.

The pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 index yielded 2.68 and the Eurostoxx 50 was unscrewed from 2.21%. In Paris the CAC 40 ended down 2.61% to 2850.55 points.

The London Stock Exchange fell 2.58%, that of 2.98% in Frankfurt and Milan instead of 2.72%.

"The markets are nervous because a lot of political uncertainty.As long as no solution has been found to the situation in Greece, the context will remain difficult, "Judge Klaus Wiener, chief economist of Generali Investments.

Cyclical stocks were particularly hard hit, always burdened by concerns about a possible relapse into recession. The European automotive sector dropped 6.21%, largest decline sector, and those of construction and banks have lost both about 4%.

In addition, the banking sector is dragged down by Dexia, which lost up to 38% in session to finish down by 22.46%.France and Belgium flew to the rescue of the Franco-Belgian bank Tuesday while script for a dismantling of the facility, weakened by the financial crisis and in particular its exposure to Greece, is gaining credibility.

At 9:15, the CAC 40 was down 2.92% at 2894.91 points, starting the last quarter backwards, after falling 25% in the third quarter, its largest quarterly decline since 2002.

Other major European markets, London lost 2.53%, 3.5% and Frankfurt Milan 2.4%. Of the European indices, the EuroStoxx 50 and yields 2.7% Eurofirst 300 lost 2.3%.

The European banking stocks index drops 3.5% and 4.5% the car.

According to the median forecast of 27 analysts and fund managers polled by Reuters in a week, the Cac 40 should be at 3200 points by the end of December, up 6.8% from its closing level of 2995 points Wednesday.

If this forecast proves accurate, the CAC 40 will be charged with a loss of about 16% for the year 2011.

At the end of June 2012, analysts see the CAC at 3450 points, an increase of over 15% at the end of Wednesday.

Both projections are down sharply compared to the last survey conducted in late JuneWhile analysts expected a CAC at 4160 points at the end of the year and 4,350 points in mid-2012, before a series of bad economic indicators and renewed concerns about the Greek debt will make the markets fall .

"We believe that Greece will experience one eventually default 'ordered' but if policymakers are able to reduce the risk of contagion," said Patrick Moonen, responsible for investment strategy at ING Investment Management. For its part, sees the CAC 40 to 3100 points at the end of 2011 and 3200 points in mid-2012.

"To achieve this, banks will be recapitalized.And the European Central Bank will continue to buy the debt device. "

The CAC 40 has lost more than 20% since the beginning of the year, driven lower mostly by the questions of the market exposure of banks BNP Paribas, Credit Agricole and Societe Generale in the Greek and Italian sovereign debt .

The three banks have lost about two thirds of their market capitalization since mid-February, investors feared the damage that would cause a default Greek. The difficulties in obtaining bank financing in dollars on a tight money market are also the disadvantage of the Exchange.

Because of the rout in stock markets, the valuation ratios of the three major banks are found very low.Their price / net assets is approximately 0.3 and 4 of the PER, is one of the lowest in Europe.

Thus, it is not surprising that analysts and fund managers surveyed expect to see the bank at the forefront of the stock market rebound expected.

The rebound, however, should be limited by a darkening economic outlook.

"The possibility of resolving the crisis of sovereign debt in Europe reminds us that European indices could rebound, driven by banking stocks and insurance.However, the global economic slowdown is already evident in the macro, and distribution of credit will slow because of the willingness of banks to improve their balance sheet, which will impact more global growth and therefore limit the initial bounce, " Joffrey Ouafqa comments, Convictions manager at Asset Management.

He sees the CAC 40 to 3200 points by the end of the year and 3,300 points in mid-2012.